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Adspend growth in ‘fast track’ Asian markets will start to slow over the next three years but the overall picture for the region – Japan excepted – is a generally healthy one, according to latest forecasts from Zenith.

The fast-track countries – China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam – will experience growth of 7% in 2018/19, the highest of any region, but will slow to an average of 6.2% in the years to 2021.

Zenith said the slowdown will be a result of some markets, China in particular, reaching “substantial scale”.

Japan, however, which the media agency described as being “stuck in a rut of perennial low growth” will see average growth of only 2.1% between 2018 and 2021, down from the 3.1% it experienced in the previous five years.

Meanwhile, mature Asia Pacific markets – Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand – will see modest growth of 2.3% this year, rising to 3.4% in 2019 and an average of 3.6% to 2021.

One market set to soar is India, with Zenith predicting it will become one of the 10 largest advertising markets in the world, by ad spend, in three years.

The potential for further growth is “huge”, the report said, with an average annual increase in ad spend of 13.5%, hitting US$14.2b by 2021.

Indonesia, currently the 10th largest market by spend, is likely to slip out of the top 10.

Overall, Zenith said global spend will rise 4.5% to $561b in 2018, before falling to 4% next year, down from previous forecast of 4.2%. In 2020 growth will hit 4.2%, slipping marginally to 4.1% in 2021.

Online video is expected to be the fastest growing medium, with marketers spending 18% more each year to 2021, twice the growth rate of internet display advertising.

Advertising on social media will increase 13% over the same time frame, while paid search and classified advertising will rise 7% and 6% respectively.

Zenith said a growing trend will be e-commerce advertising with brands reaching customers at the point on sale on platforms such as Alibaba and Amazon.

“Amazon generated nearly US$5b in advertising revenue in 2017 as a whole, and in Q3 2018 its ad revenue grew 122% year on year,” the report said. “Other shopping platforms are following suit by investing in their own advertising activities.”

If the rise of e-commerce globally follows the same trajectory as China, it could account for 18% of global adspend by 2017, Zenith said.

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